Wednesday, November 21, 2012

Prospect Ranking Primer

This marks the first annual Camp Post prospect ranking list, compiled of the best pitching and position player prospects in world Camp at the start of the season.  Below is a primer for the post and the rationale in selecting which prospects made the list:
  1. The Top 5 position player and pitching prospect at each level of the minor leagues was selected based on a rating scale described below
  2. Initially the top prospects were selected based on a brief assessment of their ratings, then they were rated by categories and given a score to identify the top 5
  3. Projected and current ratings were taken into consideration depending on where the player was in his development
  4. Projected player position was based on my assessment of their defensive skills and where they best fit, not the position the current owner/HBD has designated
  5. All projected ratings are based solely on my projected rating budget
  6. Overall budget received virtually no consideration, it is my belief overall rating has little to no value in assessing a player true on the field value

Position Player Categories/Explanation:

Positional Value (0-3) – This rating was used to provide a weighting method so positions that have more defensive value and harder to fill with quality players get an extra boost (i.e. an average to above average hitting SS with above average to plus defensive skills is more valuable than an above average hitting/plus defensive 1b).  The positions were broken out like this:

  • ·         SS, CF, C – 3 Rating

  • ·         2b, 3b – 2 Rating

  • ·         1b, LF, RF – 1 Rating

  • ·         DH – 0 Rating

Offense (1-5) – 5 primary player ratings were considered: Contact, Power, Vs L, Vs R, Batting eye.  Speed and base running were considered but more as a tie breaker than anything else.  An example of 5 rated offensive players is someone with roughly an average of 85 across those 5 ratings and no rating that is average to below average.
Defense (1-3) – Defense is weighted slightly less than offense, which is a personal preference.  The rating is relative to position, so both a SS and 1b can receive a 3.  A 3 is a gold glove or projected gold glove caliber, 2 above average, 1.5 is average, 1 below average, etc..
Makeup/Durability/Health (1-2) – This rating is based on the players ability to play regularly, stay healthy and their makeup.  I used this as an added boost to those players who have a higher likelihood of reaching their ability.

Pitching Categories/Explanation:

Positional Value (0 or 2) – This is used to separate out SP and RP.  In my opinion SP is more valuable than RP and this helps separate the two.  That doesn’t rule out RP from making the list, but a RP would have to project to be 130 innings dominate force to make the list.  SP = 2, RP = 0

Control (1-5) – Based on the pitchers projected ability to throw strikes

Vs L, Vs R (1-5) – Based on the pitchers projected ability to get lefties or righties out.  Note slightly more weight was given to vs. R as more players are right handed

Pitches (1-3) – Based on the pitchers quality of pitches.

Stamina/Durability (1-3) – This is relative to whether the pitcher is a SP or RP, so again, both can receive a grade of 3.  This is based on how many innings and how quickly a pitcher can recover relative to SP or RP.
Now on to the Rankings:

Top 5 Low prospect list to follow shortly.....

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